A couple of interesting surveys on growth and development that came out in the past week that I want to point out a few things about.

The first is the third installment of the Utah Foundation’s “Missing Middle” report, which gives the results of a survey about Utahn’s preferred and acceptable housing development.  The second is a survey conducted by Envision Utah survey which describes, among other things, Utahn’s attitudes towards growth. Viewed in the light of the housing affordability crisis, there’s some good news, but maybe not really given the realities of local government politics.

First, the Utah Foundation survey, titled Utahn’s Housing Preferences.  Lots of interesting information in this survey, which to no one’s surprise indicates that state residents overwhelmingly say single-family homes are their preferred style of new housing development.  As current data points out, cost trends make it obvious that this style of housing is increasingly less affordable, becoming out of reach to a substantial majority of those seeking new homes, especially first-time homebuyers.

However, there is some hope that seems to be indicated in the Utah Foundation survey, as expressed in a piece by Foundation President Peter Reichard.  He says in part,

Most survey respondents (60%) support more affordable housing options in their neighborhoods, with 38% strongly supporting more options. To address affordability issues, about 46% of survey respondents would accept middle housing in their neighborhoods. But Utahns are generally not fond of having apartment complexes nearby. In other words, there is the possibility of bringing in a wider variety of housing units, even within existing neighborhoods, but it should harmonize with the neighborhoods.

That sounds really good!  But then I read what’s in the Envision Utah survey, in which Utahns are not so thrilled about new growth of any kind.  From a Deseret News story:

A survey conducted by Envision Utah found that many Utahns aren’t excited about the population boom. About 42% of respondents think future growth will make the state worse — 13% said “a lot worse,” and 30% said “a little worse.”

…the survey points to an increasing number of Utahns who say not only is growth bad, but it should be stopped. That sentiment can sometimes result in opposition toward zoning measures and loosened regulations that, as the governor says, would “increase supply.”

Roughly 23% of respondents say growth jeopardizes the quality of life and that the state and its residents should try to stop or slow the influx of people.

“This was concerning to us. This is not something we’ve seen before,” said Jason Brown with Envision Utah. …

Some of the perceived negative consequences of growth are the increasing costs of housing and housing shortages…

So in other words, it’s the unwanted growth that is causing the crisis in housing affordability.  Well, in the real world, it’s not very possible to stop growth, unless of course there’s no place for these new wanna-be Utah residents to live  So – no build, no growth!  And how does such a policy express itself?  Sky-high costs for housing.

But wait, didn’t we just see in the Utah Foundation study that Utahns are willing to accept middle-missing housing?  Well, maybe so, if they’re okay with new growth (which according to the EU survey many are not).  And, of course this is according to a statistically valid survey.  But I ask you, do we get statistically valid cross-sections of citizens who show up to local council meetings where new housing developments are proposed?

There’s plenty of anecdotal and even statistically valid research that indicates that local land use policies are primarily driven by the owners of single-family homes who show up to those meetings and get elected to city council seats. And, as the EU survey shows, many of these folks think we should try to stop growth.  So, does “missing middle” housing, which appears to be more and more necessary to address the affordability issue, really have a chance?  Hmmm….