Since I’m writing this on a Sunday and the day of the founding of Salt Lake City by Mormon pioneers, I thought i should maybe include some Christian scripture in today’s post.

There’s a well-know saying, taken from several similar verses in the Old Testament, that says,

visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the sons to the third and fourth generation…

While I was hoping this maxim would not apply to the newer, younger generation of homeowners in our communities, it appears that that sentiment may be unrealized (sigh!)

Jerusalem Demsas, writer for The Atlantic, last week had a piece published titled The Next Generation of NIMBYs.  The subtitle was more telling:

Younger buyers who sunk their savings into new homes have too much to lose.

Data seems to show that, for the last couple of years:

First-time homebuyers are the major driver of the increase in demand. In 2021, Freddie Mac financed 554,000 loans for first-time homebuyers — up 22% from 2020. That’s the highest level since tracking began in 1994.

And where is that demand coming from?

The reason behind the higher demand is simple — it is all about demographics. The large cohort of Millennials that first entered the job market in the mid-2000s is now in their early-to-mid-30s — the typical age range of first-time homebuyers.

Younger people!  More liberal, progressive types!  We’ve known for some time now that NIMBYs, those that show up at meetings opposed to new development, are generally older, white, male, single-family homeowners (hence my letting pass without comment the scripture reference to fathers and sons).  So now, that may be changing!  There was even a piece written about that not long ago that I posted about.

But Demsas (who wrote the piece a few months ago that I stole the title of for my upcoming conference sessions, Community Input Is Bad, Actually) thinks that because, for a variety of reasons, Millenials have more of their net worth tied up in these new homes, they will follow right along with William Fischel’s Homevoter Hypothesis and oppose any new development they perceive might negatively affect their home values.

Well, but they’re younger, more progressive, more attuned to social justice.  So this won’t hold, right?  Hmmm.  Once again, there’s a pretty good body of research that shows that opposition to density and new development is no respecter of political ideology.  See the following:

Where Self-Interest Trumps Ideology: Liberal Homeowners and Local Opposition to Housing Development

Both liberals and conservatives are NIMBYs, especially if they own their home

See Exodus Chapter 20.